Eastern Mediterranean Route

The Eastern Mediterranean route is one of the most heavily used migration pathways to Europe, yet it remains poorly understood outside policy and research circles. The journey typically involves significant financial investment and extended travel time, with no certainty of reaching the intended destination. For most travelers, the route passes through Turkey before they attempt to enter the European Union—a pattern that has shaped the route’s dynamics for over a decade.

Migrants using this route come primarily from Syria, Afghanistan, Egypt, and Eritrea—countries affected by prolonged conflict, political instability, and severe economic challenges. The Syrian civil war has been the dominant driver of movement along this corridor, displacing millions of people and generating migration flows of unprecedented scale throughout the 2010s. Turkey initially opened its borders and received large numbers of displaced Syrians. Over time, however, limited legal protections, restricted access to formal employment, and uncertain living conditions have meant that for many, Turkey functions as a transitional space rather than a permanent solution. This dynamic has been reinforced by restrictive asylum policies in Europe, which have made onward movement increasingly difficult and left many migrants in extended periods of limbo.

Migration statistics along the Eastern Mediterranean route reflect shifting political and humanitarian conditions. In 2015, over 885,000 people arrived via this pathway—the highest number on record, driven largely by the Syrian conflict. The implementation of the EU-Turkey Statement in 2016 led to a sharp decline in arrivals, a reduction further amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2020 and 2021, detections fell to around 20,000 per year. Since 2022, however, numbers have risen again, reaching approximately 60,000 arrivals in 2023. This upward trend is linked to renewed instability in countries of origin and illustrates a consistent pattern: when enforcement intensifies along one route, migration flows adjust and seek alternative pathways.

The Eastern Mediterranean route is geographically fragmented, comprising multiple sub-routes with varying costs and risks. Some migrants cross by sea from Turkey to the Greek islands — a relatively short distance but one that still involves significant danger. Others undertake longer and more expensive journeys by boat directly to southern Italy, particularly to regions such as Calabria and Apulia. The broader Eastern Mediterranean and Adriatic migratory system has also historically included crossings from Albania toward Italy across the Adriatic Sea, especially during the 1990s and early 2000s, when large numbers of Albanian migrants and refugees reached the Italian coasts of Puglia aboard overcrowded vessels and informal maritime transports. These routes, while differing in historical context and geopolitical drivers, collectively illustrate the centrality of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas as interconnected spaces of mobility, border control, and humanitarian risk within migration toward Europe.

According to IOM data from 2023, more than half of surveyed migrants reported spending over USD 2,500 on their journey. Some crossings involve sailboats, sometimes marketed by smugglers as “first-class” routes due to their higher cost. This terminology, however, is deeply misleading: these journeys still involve overcrowding, inadequate provisions, and serious safety risks. Additionally, an overland component passes through Greece or Bulgaria, and in some cases this route overlaps with departures from Libya, blurring the distinction between the Eastern and Central Mediterranean corridors. These pathways are thus never static; they shift continuously in response to enforcement policies and changing conditions on the ground.

Greece and Italy serve as the main entry points for the Eastern Mediterranean route, yet arrival in these countries does not necessarily signify the end of the journey. More than half of migrants surveyed by IOM in Greece in 2023 indicated they did not intend to remain there. Their desired destinations were typically Western or Northern European countries such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, or the United Kingdom. The EU-Turkey Statement, while effective in reducing irregular crossings, has produced unintended consequences: it has effectively confined many migrants in Turkey for extended periods, transforming what was intended to be a brief transit into months or even years of waiting. Similarly, those who reach Greece or Italy often find themselves unable to move onward due to the Dublin Regulation and restrictive border controls. As a result, journeys that begin with the goal of reaching safety or stability frequently culminate in prolonged uncertainty and protracted displacement.